Fort Lauderdale South
A 1958 home
+$280kGross spread
- FlaggedCode caseMar 2024
- Bought, 5 months later,$285kAug 2024
- Resold, 10 months later,$565kJun 2025
Also on record
- Held 40 years· since 1984
How it works
How a home makes the list.
Every single-family home under $1M in Broward, scored twice every week. The best are worked up in full, picked on Monday and sent on Tuesday at 7am, to no more than three investors an area.
The week
Sunday to Tuesday, every week.
- 01
Sunday night
Every home, scored twice.
Each single-family home under $1M in the area gets two numbers out of 100: how likely it is to sell, and how likely it is to pencil as a flip. Every reason behind them is dated and sourced.
- 02
Monday
The best of them, shortlisted.
Only the ones whose numbers work make the list: a max offer within reach of what the home is worth today, backed by renovated comps, with a rehab that clears the flood 50% rule. Best first, up to twenty a week, some weeks fewer. Nothing goes in to fill space.
- 03
Tuesday, 7am
No more than three investors see it.
The Short List lands with a deal sheet for every target. It goes to no more than three investors per area, and to nobody else.
The week in numbers · Sep 30, 2026
391,641 homes read. At most twenty an area make the list.
391,641
single-family homes read
Every one in Broward, every week.
Set aside first
- 41,612 over $1M
- 10,751 updated in the last 10 years
- 10,075 bought in the last year
29,885
with a reason to sell and a reason to pencil
Of 327,361 scored twice, those above zero on both.
3,181
worked up in full
The best 250 in each area: renovated comps, rehab, the max offer, the flood 50% rule and city records.
650
for Monday’s pick
The best 50 in each area, the ones that pencil first.
up to 20
an area make the Short List
Picked Monday, out Tuesday at 7am. Some weeks fewer.
The two scores
What moves each score.
Every home gets two scores out of 100: how likely it is to sell, and how likely it is to pencil as a flip. Each comes from dated signals like these, and each is a score, not a probability.
Likely to sell
Raises it
- An estate owns it (on the roll, or probate papers on record)
- A lis pendens (a lawsuit over the house) since the owner bought, not released
- A tax deed application on record
- A lien on the home for unpaid city charges, code fines or HOA dues
- An open code case, an unsafe structure or a vacant-property registration (Fort Lauderdale)
- The owner’s mailing address is out of state or out of Broward, with no homestead
- Owned 15 years or more, with no homestead exemption (in and around Fort Lauderdale)
- A homestead dropped since last year’s roll
- Held in a trust or a life estate
Out of 100, from dated public records. A score, not a probability.
Likely to pencil
Raises it
- Our max offer, from renovated sales nearby, comes close to the as‑is value
- Built by 1985, with no major update on record
- Outside the flood zone, or room under the 50% rule
Lowers it
- Our max offer falls well short of the as‑is value
- The rehab trips the flood 50% rule
- An open or expired permit
- Signs of work done without a permit
Out of 100, from the comps, the rehab and the records. A score, not a probability.
What we read
County property records
Every single-family home in Broward: owner and mailing address, values, year built, homestead.
Posted Jul 27, 2026
Sales records
When each home last sold and for how much, and the renovated resales behind every after-repair value.
Posted Jul 27, 2026
County court records
Lawsuits affecting the property and probate filings, tied to the home.
Read Sep 30, 2026
City permit records
Roofs, A/C, remodels, and open or expired permits, for the homes we work up.
Read Sep 30, 2026
Code enforcement records
Open cases, unsafe structures and vacant-property registrations, for the homes we work up.
Read Sep 30, 2026
Federal flood maps
The flood zone behind every 50% rule check.
Maps effective Jul 31, 2024
Aerial imagery
Before-and-after frames of the house on the deal sheet.
Read Sep 30, 2026
Caught early
Homes we flag sell nearly six times as often.
We scored every home as it stood on July 1, 2025, using only what was on record that day, then waited to see which sold. Of the 20 our likely-to-sell score ranked highest in each area, within a year:
Our likely-to-sell picksThe 20 ranked highest in each area
23 of every 100
A do-it-yourself listAbsentee owners, long holds, court filings
7 of every 100
Similar homesPicked at random in the same areas
4 of every 100
The Short List then keeps only the homes whose numbers work, which trades some of that edge for price. That’s why we track every list we send.
A few real flips, caught early:
Fort Lauderdale North
A 1963 4/2 (four bedrooms, two baths)
+$270kGross spread
- FlaggedCode caseJun 2023
- Bought, 10 months later,$580kMar 2024
- Resold, 17 months later,$850kAug 2025
Also on record
- Held 18 years· since 2005
Fort Lauderdale North
A 1952 4/3 (four bedrooms, three baths)
+$245kGross spread
- FlaggedCode caseNov 2022
- Bought, 8 months later,$300kJul 2023
- Resold, 18 months later,$545kJan 2025
Also on record
- Held 21 years· since 2002
Pompano Beach
A 1968 3/2 (three bedrooms, two baths)
+$203kGross spread
- FlaggedOwner outside BrowardJul 2025
- Bought, 4 months later,$513kNov 2025
- Resold, 9 months later,$716kJul 2026
Also on record
- Held 56 years· since 1969
Wilton Manors & Oakland Park
A 1959 3/1 (three bedrooms, one bath)
+$188kGross spread
- FlaggedOwner outside the U.S.Jul 2025
- Bought, 4 months later,$230kOct 2025
- Resold, 5 months later,$418kMar 2026
Wilton Manors & Oakland Park
A 1990 3/2 (three bedrooms, two baths)
+$182kGross spread
- FlaggedOwner outside the U.S.Jul 2025
- Bought, 5 months later,$278kDec 2025
- Resold, 6 months later,$460kJun 2026
Also on record
- Held 35 years· since 1990
Fort Lauderdale South
A 1956 home
+$175kGross spread
- FlaggedCode caseMar 2024
- Bought, 10 months later,$350kJan 2025
- Resold, 5 months later,$525kJun 2025
Also on record
- Held 21 years· since 2003
Fort Lauderdale South
A 1957 3/2 (three bedrooms, two baths)
+$174kGross spread
- FlaggedVacant-property registrationJan 2025
- Bought, 3 months later,$290kApr 2025
- Resold, 14 months later,$464kJun 2026
Every home in our 13 areas was scored as it stood on July 1, 2025, using only records dated before that day (flood maps and code-case status are as they stand today). Sales counted for 11 months, through May 31, 2026. Our likely-to-sell picks, the 20 homes in each area with the highest likely-to-sell score (a tie for the last place shared evenly): 61 of 260 sold (23.46%). Similar homes, the same number of eligible homes drawn at random in each area: 3.93%, so 5.97×. A do-it-yourself list (absentee owner, a long hold without a homestead, an open lawsuit affecting the property or probate), drawn the same way: 6.81%, so 3.44×. “Eligible” means single-family, under $1M, not bought in the prior 12 months, not updated in the prior 10 years.
By area: 5.2× in the five areas with city permit records, 6.5× in the other eight. Scored on October 1, 2025 instead, with eight months of sales: 18.73%, so 6.54×. For context, the top 20 per area by our full ranking, which also weighs whether the numbers work: 35 of 260 sold (13.46%), so 3.42×. The Short List adds the numbers check on top, and we track it from its first list. It’s a test of the likely-to-sell score, not of any week’s Short List, and past results don’t promise future ones.
Picked by rule, not by hand. A home needs a signal besides a long hold; a long hold only shows beside one. Then each kind of signal found, by the largest gross spread among the homes showing it, then the largest spreads, up to eight. Turns under three months, enlarged or new houses and resales at twice the price or more are left out. Gross spread is the resale price less the purchase price, before rehab, holding and selling costs.
A flip: a home bought, renovated and resold within 24 months for 1.15 times the price or more.
The cases come from Broward flips resold from Sep 2024 to Sep 2026 whose seller’s own purchase is on record.
A signal counts only if it was on record at least 91 days before the investor bought: a recent code enforcement case; an estate, an absentee owner or a trust in county property records; court filings on record before the purchase; or a hold of 15+ years.
Questions
On the method, answered.
What’s on the Short List?
Up to twenty single-family homes under $1M in your area, in order. Some weeks fewer; an empty week says so. Every target comes with a deal sheet: why it’s here, with dated reasons; the max offer and how we got there; the ARV with its comps; the rehab budget; the 50% rule check; permits; before-and-after aerials; and the owner of record with a mailing address.
It lands every Tuesday at 7am, by email and on the site.
How do I reach the owner?
Each deal sheet has the owner’s name and mailing address of record. Write to them, or knock where it makes sense. There are no phone numbers or emails. We never contact owners, and we take no cut of your deal.
What if a target is already listed?
Then deal through the listing agent. Check before you write.
How are the numbers built?
The max offer (the maximum allowable offer, or MAO) starts from the ARV: the median of what renovated homes nearby sold for, adjusted to today. From there we subtract the full Florida cost stack: selling costs and deed stamps, the rehab at investor-crew rates with contingency, buying costs, financing, holding, and a profit of 10% of the ARV (at least $30,000). Big-ticket items like a roof or A/C go in only when the permit record says they’re due.
Beside it: what the flip makes if you pay the as-is value, the same offer at licensed-contractor rates, the 70% rule for reference, and a worst-case max: the price that still makes the profit if the ARV lands at the low end of the comps, rehab runs 15% over and the sale takes twelve months. Fewer than three renovated comps nearby means no max offer at all, and a rehab that trips the flood 50% rule means no flip offer. Every figure is an estimate, not an appraisal.
How far can I trust the numbers?
They’re estimates. The ARV is the median of renovated sales nearby, the rehab carries a 10–20% contingency, and the offer holds back a 10% profit. The worst-case max shows what still works if the comps come in low and it all runs long. Check them before you offer.
How does your max offer compare with what flippers actually pay?
Our max offer is the most you can pay and still keep a 10% profit after every cost. In the Broward flips we tested, about four in five investors paid more than that, typically 20 to 25% more, and at those prices the typical flip roughly broke even.
What’s the flood 50% rule?
In a flood zone on the federal flood maps, if a rehab costs half or more of what the building (not the land) is worth, the whole house has to be brought up to today’s flood code. For most older South Florida ranches, that means elevating or rebuilding, and the flip stops working.
Every deal sheet checks it, in dollars, at the rehab’s expected cost and at the top of its range. Green means room to spare, amber means close, and red means the planned rehab goes over it, so there’s no flip offer. It’s a screen, not a determination: the city decides at permit.
Be one of three in your area.
15 seats left, in five areas with room. Seats open October 15.